Swine Flu

[Lozenger]

I was reading about it and how they think there will be a surge of cases in the winter months. But do you think it is anything to worry about?

Do you think it is a pandemic? Do you think it is a created disease or is it a genuine threat?

X

[Doc Durian]

It's been very limited but circulating around Wisconsin and Ohio in a closely related strain for some number of years largely centred around large pig farms but infecting workers and close contacts.

As late, it's turned up in Mexico in a village, again, near a pig farm... but only slightly more mutated from the US strain.

The villagers nearby immediately blamed the farm... they were told off... and it turned up in one of the most populated cities in the world and held a higher than now common average kill rate.

They attributed it to living conditions and prior health problems.

It's since moved around the grid while the WHO refused to escalate their alert system to the proper stage 6.

Now nations are in the protect phase and predominately no longer screen incoming travellers for the virus as it's futile.

Nearly every death attributed to H1N1 in the media is accompanied by "undisclosed prior health conditions", but nothing has been confirmed in that regard.

They've even suggested that obesity is enough to put someone at risk for early expiration for what most people can supposedly pass through without anti-viral medications or hospitalizations.

Indeed, the people behind official figures calculate the unofficial as much more grand than being officially accounted for, and tens of thousands if not hundreds of thousands now are either unknowingly going through what they think is seasonal flu or have recovered from it ...none the wiser for what they had.

This H1N1 strain is a genetic reassortment of swine, human, and bird flu variants.

So it has the potential to cause a cytokine storm in the right biologically susceptible individual and why Australian health authorities recently descended on an Aussie town full of aboriginals after an aboriginal man died from H1N1, the first in the nation to do so.

The behaviour of the virus thus far has mirrored the first wave of the Spanish Influenza from 1918 (misnomer, it most likely originated near army barracks in the American Midwest after large quantities of animal manure was supposedly burnt around the same time a number of soldiers fell ill and collapsed in a mess hall.)

It's now a waiting game for a vaccine and "enough" of it to go around, should it mutate to a more deadlier version down the road as it did in the Spanish Influenza. All governments are clamouring for more of the limited vaccine contracts, and the once sought after Tamiflu is being turfed (due to most of the seasonal influenzas being resistant to it from overuse, and a fear that they'll probably genetically reassort with H1N1 as more people fall ill) in lieu of Zanamivir (or Relenza) which can't had a resistance made against it, but there's limited stocks of it.

Those nations who don't have clout will probably go the way of Indonesia if they can and hold back virus samples from the WHO if they can't secure a contractual obligation to supply them with a fair amount of vaccine.

H1N1 is currently everywhere, whether officially reported or not. It will be conceded over the coming months.

Already governments and media outlets are working in tandem to report, "pre-existing medical conditions, seasonal flu kills so many per year anyway, these won't be the last deaths... but it's natural" spiels.

They are trying to reduce panic.

A number of western nations have been preparing for H5N1 and have the necessary triage morgues, hospital tents, and cots loaded up on semi trailers and ready to go...often with plenty of Tamiflu (already discussed)

What they don't have is enough ventilators for those who experience severe symptoms and rapidly expire without critical treatment. They've had pandemic response plans drawn up, debated, and signed in congress/senate for some number of years, and regional centres have regularly staged mock ups to prepare.

The question is not if, but how bad.

We may find out later down the course of history if there was an intentional human element to the tragedies... but as most things go, it'll be reduced into the realm of conspiracy theorists.

I wouldn't worry about it.

Consider your own immediate future and how you think you should respond.

It may fizzle out.

It may not.

Don't get caught with your pants down.

If it's a conspiracy, those with their pants down are the ones who are going to cop it.

[vashti]

Many thousands of people die from flu every year, especially the very young, the very old, and the immunocompromised.

Don't panic, and don't get neurotic about it. Wash your hands, keep them away from your face, and avoid sick people.

[Doc Durian]

Many thousands of people die from flu every year, especially the very young, the very old, and the immunocompromised.

Don't panic, and don't get neurotic about it. Wash your hands, keep them away from your face, and avoid sick people.

With all due respect, Vashti, have you ever read for the news?

[vashti]

???

Read *for* the news?

Do you mean as a newscaster?

No.

EDIT: I just read through your post, Doc. Obviously, I am not inclined towards hysteria or paranoia.

[Doc Durian]

???

Read *for* the news?

Do you mean as a newscaster?

No.

Okay, just saying... this one, much like the previous centuries one prefers the healthier immune systems of youth and pregnancy.

You've given a well balanced and panic free statement, and there's nothing wrong with placating someones fears... but on the other hand, while washing hands and not touching your face is an agreed bonus, it's not the healthy elder statesmen and women of our culture who are suffering the mortality rates thus far.

That may change with further mutations, but consider...

[vashti]

Oh, please. When you consider the number of confirmed cases vs. the number of deaths, you still shouldn't be inclined towards panic. The death rates from flu have remained the same, even with this strain. Working in the hospital, there are a lot of things I worry more about.

[Doc Durian]

Oh, please. When you consider the number of confirmed cases vs. the number of deaths, you still shouldn't be inclined towards panic. The death rates from flu have remained the same, even with this strain. Working in the hospital, there are a lot of things I worry more about.

Like the next wave and if/when the artificial breathing apparatus run out? The distempered people who you'll have to placate against their lovelorn pleadings to do with their beloved family members not in the cue? Possibly someone you know or care for?

Yeah, you have MSRA to contend with...but while you've got resources avail, you can deal with these things....more or less... for the moment.

You're watching and waiting the same as me.

Why don't you want to admit that, even as a nurse?

[vashti]

I genuinely am not concerned at this point. :shrug:

If your doomsday prophecies materialize, I can start worrying later.

[IndiReloaded]

Buy disposable rubber gloves and some face masks. Lots of hand soap. A few bottles of bleach in the house. Lots of water. Food stores are okay but chances are you won't need it.

My folks remember the last flu epidemic. They got sick at the same time one over the bucket & the other on the toilet. The bad part about it is if both people get sick, you won't be going anywhere for a few days. So, just make sure you keep your house well-stocked with whatever you might need for, say, a week.

[Doc Durian]

I genuinely am not concerned at this point. :shrug:

If your doomsday prophecies materialize, I can start worrying later.

Don't they publish WHO stats at your centre and occasionally brief you about your area?

I think we both can agree that the majority of people will weather well this wave of the strain.... but the death rate will still be very high.

Then it's a waiting game.... is it gone, or is it back, and in what force or capacity?

Nothing Doomsday-ish about speaking the truth.

Don't try to lump me in that...I doubt you have the faculties to make it stick.

[Yggdrasil]

There is absolutely no reason for panic.

At this point in time, less people have died worldwide from h1n1 then compared to how many people die in the US alone from the 'regular' flu.

Hardly a reason to panic.

[vashti]

We haven't had any confirmed cases in our area, and we are a suburb of Los Angeles with a large Mexican population. Our hospital has posted a flyer in the breakroom.

Again, i will worry when it's time.

[Doc Durian]

There is absolutely no reason for panic.

At this point in time, less people have died worldwide from h1n1 then compared to how many people die in the US alone from the 'regular' flu.

Hardly a reason to panic.

My goodness, you two are quick on the wag the dog trip.

Both employed in the medical profession I presume?

[vashti]

Did you run out and buy plastic to encase yourself in after 9/11, Doc? You strike me as a worrier.